This is a second attempt at the experiment I proposed in this blog post - I'm going to do a BFZ draft, but for the first handful of picks, I will only be taking the card with the highest win rate, as outlined in this article on MTGGoldfish.
Pack 1 pick 1:
59.60% Eldrazi Skyspawner
59.20% Ugin's Insight
58.50% Vile Aggregate
54.10% Mind Raker
53.20% Skitterskin
My Pick:
Pack 1 pick 2:
53.60% Incubator Drone
53.30% Valakut Predator
53.20% Ulamog's Reclaimer
52.30% Valakut Invoker
51.60% Deathless Behemoth
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Pack 1 pick 3:
58.90% Coastal Discovery
57.60% Mire's Malice
54.20% Lithomancer's Focus
53.40% Molten Nursery
53.00% Ghostly Sentinel
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Pack 1 pick 4:
(57.50% Dispel)
54.10% Mind Raker
53.20% Ulamog's Reclaimer
51.50% Tajuru Beastmaster
50.60% Demon's Grasp
49.40% Bone Splinters
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Pack 1 pick 5:
56.70% Outnumber
53.60% Incubator Drone
53.30% Tandem Tactics
50.90% Stonefury
50.70% Anticipate
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Pack 1 pick 6:
(58.60% Inspired Charge)
53.00% (56%) Ghostly Sentinel
53.00% (54%) Smite the Monstrous
52.50% Sure Strike
50.40% Chasm Guide
45.30% Roilmage's Trick
(I "messed up" here, according to the experiment - for some reason I thought that Ghostly Sentinel was only 51%.)
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Pack 1 pick 7:
52.90% Boiling Earth
Boiling Earth is the only >50% card in this pack.
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Pack 1 pick 8:
54.60% Murk Strider
50.20% Shatterskull Recruit
Rush of Ice, a card I thought was elite at the beginning of the format, is a mere 48.00%.
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Pack 1 pick 9:
54.10% Mind Raker
50.70% Anticipate
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At this point in the draft, I know for sure that I'm in blue, but I don't feel strongly pulled to another color per se. I have more quality black picks than I do red picks (at least, win % wise), and I essentially saw no red in pack 1. I felt as though I had a better reason to be black than to be red, so I separated from the win rates and took Complete Disregard over Rolling Thunder.
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I don't think this deck is as good as the last one, and I wish it had a couple more exile/ingest cards, but I'm still pleasantly surprised with how it turned out.
I won the first two rounds very easily and ended up splitting the finals. I normally don't like splitting, but my opponent was willing to ship the QP AND I had started a match of Modern to pass the time between rounds and I wasn't even finished with game 1 when the finals popped up.
HOT FIRE
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