Pack 1 pick 1:
Cards I'm considering: Champion of the Parish, Rakish Heir, Deranged Assistant
Interesting decision. I don't feel like any of these cards are overwhelmingly powerful. I've been drafting a lot of white decks without much success, so I weighted Champion accordingly. I also haven't had much positive experience drafting and building blue decks, even though I like them, so I eliminated the assistant (and besides, it's an engine card at best).
Rakish Heir is not usually a card I pay much attention to, but a few things led me to choose it here. Allen Jackson has been going over almost all of my drafts, and he seems to prefer red because of how aggressive it can be, combined with how underdrafted it is (my own experience with tabling geistflames has kind of confirmed this). I also haven't really tried drafting a super aggressive red deck, and aggressive strats seem to win in this format, so I decided to try the Heir here. This was a very calculated pick.
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Pack 1 pick 2:
Cards I'm considering: Devil's Play
I look like such a master.
Question: If you would have taken champion over rakish heir in pack 1, would you still take this card, or would you take Fiend Hunter?
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Pack 1 pick 3:
Cards I'm considering: Crossway Vampire, Markov Patrician, Disciple of Griselbrand, Spider Spawning
Ideally I'll be drafting the R/B aggro deck. However, I've heard from a couple independent sources that Spider Spawning decks are the best in the format, so I at least give that card some consideration. When I decide I'd rather just maximize my first two picks, the decision comes to Crossway vs. Patrician, and I think Crossway is more useful in my strategy.
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Pack 1 pick 4:
Cards I'm considering: Bloodcrazed Neonate, Markov Patrician, Typhoid Rats
I can't help but feel like I would have instantly taken Neonate here if I didn't pick up via these drafts and the feedback I've received on them that it is a lot less playable than I first thought.
I love Typhoid Rats and maybe I should have taken it over my third 3 drop, but I felt like this card had a little more kick.
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Pack 1 pick 5:
Cards I'm considering: Village Ironsmith, Riot Devils
My evaluation of Riot Devils has gone up a little bit throughout these drafts, but not enough to take a 2 drop that is better than Neonate.
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Pack 1 pick 6:
Cards I'm considering: Skirsdag Cultist
I'm super happy about my first pick now.
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Pack 1 pick 7:
Cards I'm considering: Night Revelers, Kessig Wolf
I'm a little nervous about my glut of 3s, but I think this card is stronger than it looks.
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Pack 1 pick 8:
Cards I'm considering: Scourge of Geier Reach
This is another card that I think is undervalued in general.
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Pack 1 pick 9:
Cards I'm considering: Feral Ridgewolf, Desperate Ravings
Don't get me wrong, I like ridgewolf, but I already have four 3s that I think are better. When I took ravings, I was thinking about playing it as a hand-improver in case I started to flood, since flooding in an aggro deck like this is really bad.
My Pick:
Pack 1 pick 10:
Cards I'm considering: Harvest Pyre, Avacyn's Pilgrim
Weird decision. Here's my thoughts.
-Harvest pyre isn't that good
-I only have one mediocre black card and haven't seen all that much black, so technically I'm still open to a second color
-This is a really really late pilgrim, even though I haven't seen much other green
-I don't know how good R/G is since I don't have much experience with it, but pilgrim could play a huge role in accelerating all my 3 drops out
-Even if the people to my right are trying to chop green, I can still get one pack's worth of green cards and hopefully that will be enough to support an R/G aggro deck
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Pack 1 pick 11:
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Pack 2 pick 1:
Cards I'm considering: Avacyn's Pilgrim, Tormented Pariah
Not too much action in this pack. I like Tormented Pariah, but having two pilgrims can go a really long way in giving my deck the ability to curve out. Besides, I feel like I can pick up Pariahs later if I want them.
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Pack 2 pick 2:
Cards I'm considering: Gatstaf Shepherd, Vampire Interloper
Interloper is a key card in R/B aggro, but I feel like the shepherd fills kind of a similar role, and at this point I'm more interested in pursuing my R/G curveout deck.
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Pack 2 pick 3:
Cards I'm considering: Galvanic Juggernaut, Travel Preparations
Not being able to reliably flash back Travel Preparations combined with Juggernaut being a huge monster led me to choose Juggernaut.
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Pack 2 pick 4:
Cards I'm considering: Prey Upon, Reckless Waif
Weird pick. I love Prey Upon, but my guys aren't that beefy in general, so I continue to pursue the curveout strat.
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Pack 2 pick 5:
Cards I'm considering: Bloodcrazed Neonate, Tormented Pariah
I didn't consider the Temblor at all, because I think that card is deceptively less playable than you think. Most of the time, it just kills all your guys. I went with Pariah because I think Neonates are more likely to table, and that card isn't that good anyway.
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Pack 2 pick 6:
Cards I'm considering: Tormented Pariah, Bloodcrazed Neonate, Harvest Pyre
I don't have that much removal, so even though I'm not fond of Harvest Pyre in general I'm still willing to take it over more dumpy guys that I already have.
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Pack 2 pick 7:
Cards I'm considering: Somberwald Spider
Between my cultist and my dumpy guys in general, I think this card could actually be pretty good in my deck.
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Pack 2 pick 8:
$$$$$$$ (well, more like ¢¢¢¢¢¢¢ probably)
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Pack 2 pick 9:
Cards I'm considering: Caravan Vigil, Sensory Deprivation
I can't really make good use of Caravan Vigil, so I'd rather cut a card that could stifle my efforts.
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Pack 2 pick 10:
Cards I'm considering: Vampire Interloper, Battleground Geist
I'm probably bigger on insurance policies than I should be.
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Pack 2 pick 11:
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Pack 2 pick 13:
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Pack 3 pick 1:
Cards I'm considering: Brimstone Volley
I like when picks are easy.
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Pack 3 pick 2:
Cards I'm considering: Tribute to Hunger, Villagers of Estwald
This is a critical decision point. Whichever one of these cards I take, I can't look back to the other color. I end up choosing Villagers because single color 3 drops are great with my two pilgrims.
My Pick:
Pack 3 pick 3:
Cards I'm considering: Villagers of Estwald, Victim of Night, Abattoir Ghoul, Crossway Vampire
Of course, another Villagers comes with two good black cards to make me question what I've done. I end up choosing crossway vamp because even though it doesn't really match my "two pilgrims" philosophy, it matches my "killing them" philosophy very well.
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Pack 3 pick 4:
Cards I'm considering: Night Revelers, Victim of Night
Well, no looking back now. I don't think I'll have enough green mana (or mana in my deck for that matter) to support moldgraf, so I take the card I'll be more likely to play.
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Pack 3 pick 5:
Cards I'm considering: Travel Preparations
Best card in the pack, and flashing it back isn't even a pipe dream with 2 pilgrims.
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Pack 3 pick 6:
Cards I'm considering: Travel Preparations
The only other card I'd consider is Scourge, and I think having a more consistent travel option is better. I'm starting to consider playing a plains.
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Pack 3 pick 7:
Cards I'm considering: Kessig Wolf
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Pack 3 pick 8:
Cards I'm considering: Caravan Vigil, Ranger's Guile
Aside from the plains I'll probably play for my 2 travel preps, I don't need to fix colors very much so I'd rather have the mediocre trick.
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Pack 3 pick 9:
Cards I'm considering: Hollowhenge Scavenger
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Pack 3 pick 10:
Cards I'm considering: Armored Skaab, Sulfur Falls
I really wanted to take the rare here. I'm trying as hard as I can to win though, and Armored Skaab is really good against my deck, so I'd rather cut it and have to worry less about potentially playing against it than 2 or whatever extra tickets.
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Pack 3 pick 11:
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Pack 3 pick 15:
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I'm actually not displeased with this deck. I have a reasonably focused gameplan, and a get out of jail free card with enough red to comfortably support its flashback cost. I still wouldn't call this deck great though.
R1:
Game 1, I have an awesome draw that includes T1 pilgrim, T2 gatstaf, T3 tormented pariah, but my opponent easily dismantles it with a single ambush viper. The only other spells I draw for the rest of the game are a Skirsdag Cultist and a Kessig Wolf, and a Galvanic Juggernaut, and I draw them too late to deal with all the guys my opponent vomits up.
Game 2, I'm immediately on the back foot from a turn 1 champion of the parish with a turn 2 bonds of faith (to keep my shepherd from flipping), but I somehow manage to stabilize with a Scourge of Geier Reach. He goes a few turns without playing anything, and I equalize the board by trading my cards for his. When we're both in peel mode, I have a bunch of 3 power guys, while he has some chapel geists. I win the race with a key crossway vampire the only blocker he left up.
Game 3, I mulligan to 6 and keep an awkward hand: Mountain, Plains, Avacyn's Pilgrim, Travel Preparations, Crossway Vampire, Brimstone Volley. I don't really want to go to 5, even if I am on the draw, and this hand can turn out OK if I draw another land (forest or mountain will do). My next 2 draw steps yield mountain, then forest in that order, so at least I get to play Magic.
Anyhow, he has T1 Champion, T2 Ambush Viper, T3 Full Moon's Rise, T4 CHapel Geist, so he's kind of aggressive but he misses a step with a blank enchantment. My draw is turning out to be T2 Pilgrim, T3 Vampire, T4 Travel + Flashback for an instant squad, so I'm in it. Unfortunately, with his leftover green mana on my travel prep turn, he had the only card that could punish me, a Ranger's Guile for his new Chapel Geist to block and take out my Pilgrim. On his next turn he plays Bonds of Faith on my only leftover guy and crashes me down to 2, which is a tough spot for me to be in. I draw a Kessig Wolf and have some action, but he stays way ahead on his next turn with Villagers of Estwald. I still have my Brimstone Volley and I'm planning on using it on Chapel Geist and hopefully maintaining a stalemate with my first striker, but he plays Fiend Hunter on his next turn, forcing me to use the volley on it to make a block that won't leave me dead. I need to draw an answer to Chapel Geist right away to avoid losing, and I miss.
So, another round 1 loss.
I'm waiting for someone to read these drafts and tell me "Look man, you're doing it all wrong. Everything. That's why you're losing so much." and then enlighten me with some key piece of format wisdom that will instantly let me start winning. I'm starting to think that there's not really any one thing that I'm missing, though. I'm either overwhelmingly deficient in evaluating cards and assembling decks in this format, or only mildly deficient and am just on a horrible streak.
I'm in a tough spot here.
Magic isn't the lottery. There's strategy. If you approach the game with the mindset that you only lose when you get unlucky (which a lot of mid-level PTQ grinders have been guilty of at some point, myself included), you'll never improve and it will be hard for you to achieve anything.
On the other hand, it isn't chess. There's luck. Sometimes, you just can't win, no matter what sets of decisions you make. Sometimes, there just isn't a good deck for you to draft, and sometimes, you just draw all your lands or none of them.
During a losing streak, if you chalk it up to luck, you could be ignoring your leaks. If you try too hard to improve, you could be searching for leaks that aren't there. This is the spot I'm in. I'm not very good at this format, since all of my decks end up mediocre, but it's hard for me to believe that I'm so bad that I deserve to take 6 first round losses out of 7.
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