Wow, what a pack. This is hands down the best Return to Ravnica pack I've opened so far. I would be thrilled first picking Stab Wound, Auger Spree or Annihilating Fire, or Arrest. I also think Knightly Valor, Volatile Rig and Assassin's Strike are defensible first picks in some packs. In addition, Eyes in the Skies, Tower Drake and Trestle Troll are great cards that I'm usually happy to see in packs. Brushstrider is also playable, and even Stag shows up in a deck every now and then. Really, the only "bad" cards are the two land destruction spells. The question now is, how on earth do I navigate this pick?
I've heard the Stab Wound vs. Annihilating Fire discussion many times and the consensus (which I agree with) is Stab Wound. I don't think Auger Spree or Assassin's Strike really change the dynamic of that pick so right away I can agree that if I take a red and/or black card, it's going to be Stab Wound.
Between the U/W or G/W cards, it's safe to say that taking Tower Drake, Eyes in the Skies or Brushstrider is not exactly optimal, so that narrows that region of picks down to Knightly Valor vs. Arrest. I think it's close between those two cards since they serve two very different and powerful functions.
I believe you could also make a case for taking Volatile Rig, since it's a pretty strong card and it doesn't commit you to a color. However, I'm usually unhappy if I have it in a deck that isn't R/B or maybe U/R, so for that reason I kind of considered it to be a part of the Stab Wound pick family (since even though I'd technically be open if I took it, I'd be leaning towards black and red cards).
This narrows it down to Stab Wound vs. Volatile Rig vs. Arrest vs. Knightly Valor.
I think Stab Wound is the overall strongest card among those choices. However, I didn't really care to put the 4 people to my left in Rakdos and end up with zero picks in pack 2, so I chose Knightly Valor. We'll see how it works out.
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Pack 1 pick 2:
Nice pack. Had I taken Stab Wound, I'd definitely be taking Thrilla Killa here, but since I took Valor I had to decide between Trostani's Judgment and Palisade Giant.
I went with the rare because I like the effect he has on games in general. I think this pick is close though.
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Pack 1 pick 3:
I tanked hard here. The two choices for me were Courser's Accord and Voidwielder. This pick would definitely help to define my draft, since with the cards I have I could easily be either G/W or U/W.
I went with Courser's Accord. I think this pick is dependent on what deck you want to draft. I have a good chance of tabling some nice G/W cards that I passed so far (eyes, centaur herald, etc.) so this could turn out pretty nice.
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Pack 1 pick 4:
Now that I'm more or less firmly in G/W, I took Keyrune so I could ramp into my expensive-ass deck. I do love that 2/3 though and considered him for a moment.
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Pack 1 pick 5:
Reasonably happy that I didn't go with black/red cards since there don't seem to be many flowing. I took Gatecreeper Vine since my deck is kinda pricy so far, and I could definitely see it turning into an Axebane Guardian deck. The alternatives were Risen Sanctuary (which I think is a defensible pick but not really what I'm looking for with so many bigs in my deck so far) and Sundering Growth (which I feel like I can pick up later, and is largely a sideboard card anyway).
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Pack 1 pick 6:
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Pack 1 pick 9:
This pack got eaten up. If I took Voidwielder in pack 3, I think that deck would have turned out pretty nice too. As-is, I'm very pleased so far.
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Pack 1 pick 10:
Wow, how did this table?
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Pack 1 pick 11:
Not a trivial pick. I think if I really want rhinos, I can find another spot to take them, so it's down to 2 drop vs. 3 drop. I went with 3 drop since I feel like the beetle tends to get outclassed very quickly in this format, and I can't really use his scavenge effectively.
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Pack 1 pick 12:
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Pack 2 pick 1:
The cards I'm considering are Axebane Guardian and Slime Molding. Like I said earlier I could definitely see this deck being an Axebane deck, but I went with Slime Molding since I already have two pretty good populate cards, and although it's not ideal to play it super early, you can fit Slime Molding anywhere on your curve.
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Pack 2 pick 2:
Well, if I'm willing to first pick this card, I should certainly take it here. Pretty happy to have two.
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Pack 2 pick 3:
I can only imagine what crappy R/B cards the suckers to my left are fighting over.
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Pack 2 pick 4:
This pick was close for me. I love Centaur Healer, and if I don't take one early-ish I might not end up with any, but the charm is just too versatile and I can't pass it up.
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Pack 2 pick 5:
This was another tough pick for me. My deck is looking more like a populate deck so far, and the combat tricks aren't as great in those, which really had me considering Eyes in the Skies. Common Bond is just too strong though, since often it's impossible to play around even if they know it's coming.
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Pack 2 pick 6:
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Pack 2 pick 7:
Aw, crap. If I knew I'd see another Common Bond, I'd likely have taken Eyes.
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Pack 2 pick 9:
Chorus is at its best in decks that can clog the board like mine, but I find myself wanting more early drops with this deck so I take the keener.
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Pack 2 pick 13:
Wow, guess I'm glad I took Common Bond after all.
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Pack 3 pick 1:
After verifying that a foil Deathrite Shaman was in fact worth basically zero tix, I took the 2/3. I don't have a 2/3 yet and I'd rather have him than a 3rd Common Bond since he is often my favorite Knightly Valor target.
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Pack 3 pick 2:
It's either Judgment or Centaurs. Not only do I already have one centaurs, but my deck can certainly use more removal effects.
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Pack 3 pick 3:
I actually don't think taking Ethereal Armor would be horrible here, but I went with Seller anyway since I don't feel like my deck will have trouble breaking through with 2 Common Bond and 2 Knightly Valor, and it's not exactly a rush armor deck.
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Pack 3 pick 4:
I love an Ace-Bond opening, but I'm pretty happy taking an early token maker so I could potentially turn my 2 Eyes in the Skies into heavy hitters.
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Pack 3 pick 5:
I love Rootborn Defenses and I have a tough time finding a great spot to take it, since often I find myself needing actual token producers more than populate cards (and they hardly ever table for some reason). The only alternative is Smeller of Dogturds, and I probably wouldn't play 2 of him anyway.
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Pack 3 pick 6:
Extremely pleased to pick up a second 2/3.
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Pack 3 pick 7:
Looks like I might get to live the Ace-Bond dream after all.
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Pack 3 pick 8:
Tough pick for me. I could reasonably see taking Arrester, a second Defenses OR Blockade. In the end I went with blockade to increase my chance of a turn 4 Eyes generating more than 2 power. Arrester also doesn't exactly feel at home in my deck, since I don't really feel like I have a curveout aggro deck.
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Pretty straightforward deck to build. I went with 10 Plains and 7 Forests since I felt like I always wanted to be able to play Sunspire Griffin on 3, but perhaps it should have been 9-8.
Round 1
Not only did my round 1 opponent show up with a 45 card deck GWB deck, but his first spell in game 1 was Sphere of Safety. I won both of these games without much effort.
Round 2
This round my opponent's deck was G/B with a little bit of red. He played two Stab Wounds in game 1, but I was able to race the one that stuck with flying tokens (since the other one killed my guildmage). I happily boarded in Sundering Growth. I didn't see him play any combat tricks.
In game 2, my opponent had a quick ground offense with Korozda Guildmage and Grim Roustabout, but I was able to gum up the board pretty quickly. I ended up winning after I put Knightly Valor on Fencing Ace and gave it trample with Selesnya Charm after he blocked in such a way that didn't prepare him for potential trample damage.
Round 3
My opponent in this round had a G/W/B deck. I was on the draw in game 1 and I kept an uncomfortable 6 card hand with no green mana, but my opponent had no serious pressure. Eventually I drew Selesnya Keyrune and got going with token makers. I eventually won the game after stabilizing the board at 4 life and pecking him to death with flying tokens.
Game 2 my curve was awesome. Fencing Ace on 2, 2/3 flyer on 3 and 4, Knightly Valor on 5. My opponent had a Sewer Shambler that I never felt good blocking, since he would just scavenge onto his Daggerdrome Imp, so I took some damage, but he never played any reactive cards and my powerful air team eventually got him.
Magic is easy when your opponents don't have combat tricks.
Looking back, I have no clue if my first pick overall was good or bad in the abstract. I certainly feel like I was a little fortunate to decide to dodge R/B cards and then see wonderful G/W ones flowing after taking a strong white card, so I can't really comfortably call out "scoreboard" since I could just have easily been forced to pass multiple Stab Wounds for crap like Drudge Beetle and Selesnya Sentry (or even worse, panicking and switching colors every pick like I normally do).
I do think that my analysis of P1P1 is at least reasonable. If you have any thoughts or opinions, I'd be glad to hear them as always.
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