While preparing for GP Phoenix, Mark Jacobson linked an interesting blog post by Allen Wu. (You can find his blog here.) The post was about using Monte Carlo simulations to find the likelihood of certain opening hands for Eldrazi Tron. The conclusion he had drawn (at least, with respect to Eldrazi Tron) was that you should be willing to mulligan to 5 cards in search of a busted opening hand, because it happens more often than you might think. The blog post is super interesting and I recommend reading it.
